Local Officials: New-Look District 16 More Competitive with Additions of South Brunswick, Princetons

Local officials are still trying to assess the ramifications of this weekend's ruling redrawing state legislative districts.

The decision to support the so-called Democratic map moves South Brunswick from the 14th District and Princeton Township and Borough from the 15th to a newly configured 16th, with towns from Somerset and Hunterdon counties.  

The 16th now includes 15 municipalities in four counties, with South Brunswick (43,417) and Hillsborough in Somerset County (38,303) the most populous towns in the district.  Also included are the Princetons in Mercer, Branchburg, Manville, Millstone, Montgomery, Rocky Hill and Somerville in Somerset County and Delaware, Flemington, Raritan, Readington and Stockton in Hunterdon.

"This is certainly a strange configuration," said South Brunswick Mayor Frank Gambatese.  "We're now the only town from Middlesex County in this district. With four different counties now represented, it's going to make things difficult for the Assembly and Senate representatives."

Every 10 years, following the release of new population data from the U.S. Census, the state must redraw the boundaries of the districts to keep the population approximately equal.

In New Jersey, the decision is voted on by a commission of five Democrats and five Republicans. The commission was unable to reach a consensus on a new map, which led a judge to order the addition of an 11th, non-partisan member to the commission, Rutgers public policy Professor Alan Rosenthal.

After weeks of hearings, Rosenthal decided on Saturday to vote in favor of the map proposed by Democrats.  

The 16th District is now represented by state Sen. Christopher "Kip" Bateman (R-Somerset), and Assembly members Peter Biondi (R-Somerset) and Denise Coyle (R-Somerset).  Coyle's hometown of Bernards was moved into the 21st District,  where she will be one of three incumbent Republicans for two Assembly seats.

While Coyle expects to have a better idea of her plans by the end of the week, she's certain she will seek another term.

"I am absolutely a candidate for assembly," Coyle said Monday evening.

The movement of Princeton into the 16th also means that Reed Gusciora, a Princeton Democrat who represents the 15th District, will have to decide whether to run for an Assembly seat in the new district. Gusciora and Biondi are incumbents, but the district is considered likely to vote Republican.

Gusciora told Patch on Monday that he plans to move from Princeton-his home since 1989-to Trenton in time to run for reelection with his longtime running mates, Assemblywoman Bonnie Watson-Coleman and state Sen. Shirley K. Turner.

“I think the reality is it’s going to be difficult for a Democrat to win in the 16th,” Gusciora said.

With the addition of the historically Democratic-voting South Brunswick and the Princetons, local officials said the new district configuration has the potential to create more competitive balance to what had previously been a Republican dominated district.

"They really cut up our county," Bateman said.  "It's terrible.  They took nine towns away from Pete (Biondi) and I and we still hold seven towns.

"It's going to be a much more competitive district.  We're going to have to work very hard in those (democratic-leaning) towns to get our message across.  If we can't win them, we have to try to hold our position elsewhere.  We will do what we have to to get our message across."

The numbers bear out the potentially competitive nature of the district. A Patch analysis of the last three Assembly races show that Republicans would have won two Assembly seats in a newly configured 16th in 2005 and 2009-years when gubernatorial candidates topped the ballot and turnout was high. Democrats would have won narrowly in 2007, a year when turnout was much lower.

In addition, party registration in the newly configured district is about even. Republican-leaning Hillsborough and Democratic-leaning South Brunswick have the largest number of registered voters. Hillsborough is No. 1 with 24,841 and South Brunswick has 24,571.

Hillsborough, however, has a history of higher voter turnout, which could be important in determining who wins in the district. In 2007, 39 percent of Hillsborough voters turned out to the polls, compared with 30 percent in South Brunswick. In 2009, Hillsborough's turnoute was 51 percent, while South Brunswick's was 47 percent.

Local Democratic leaders are still trying to assess the impact of the decision, but believe the move will open up a window of opportunity.

"I think this is a positive move that presents an exciting opportunity for this district to become more competitive," said South Brunswick Democratic Chairman Bernard Hvozdovic.   "I assume that was the impetus behind the decision.  It does balance out this district and I think it makes it more competitive than it has been."

Somerset County Democrat chairwoman Peggy Schaffer offered similar sentiments.

"We're very excited about it," she said.  "The 16th district now leans toward the Democrats. This changes the whole landscape. We could never be competitive in this district. Now, all of a sudden, we now have more candidates than we know what to do with."

Democratic South Brunswick Councilman Joseph Camarota will be one of those candidates, as he filed paperwork today to run for District 16 Assembly.

"We're going into a new district here after having great representation over the last 10 years with the state and assembly representatives," Camarota said.  "We're now facing a scenario where we have no representation on the Democratic side."

Camarota said he would be meeting with the Democratic chairs from the Middlesex, Somerset, Hunterdon and Mercer, in an attempt to gain their support for his Assembly bid. 

"County chairs typically want to run their own people," Camarota said.  "But South Brunswick is now the largest town in this district and we have a strong record of supporting Democrats.   To me, we have a good shot at getting one of those open seats.  

"It's going to be difficult to defeat two strong incumbents in Bateman and Biondi, who are two good, longtime public servants.  But I think we have a good chance with the inclusion of these new towns to balance out representation."

Hvozdovic said he was confident the Middlesex County Democratic Party would provide their support for any candidate running this year or in the future from South Brunswick in District 16. 

Biondi said what was done to Somerset County was a "tragedy," as Somerset now has five legislative districts.  He said he anticipates tighter races than District 16 has seen in the past because of the redistricting.

"You have to get your base out and you have to get your message out," Biondi said. "For us, that's smaller government and lower taxes.

"I haven't met any of the folks there or the party heads (in the two Princetons and South Brunswick) but I will go into that district and let them know what I'm about, and hopefully I'll break even.  That's something time will tell.  I think if we work hard, we'll see the results in November."

Biondi said Democrats have a history of raising taxes that should sway voters to the GOP side.

"I don't see how you could continue to be voting Democrat in New Jersey," Biondi said.

South Brunwick Republican John O'Sullivan, a member of the Township Council, had previously announced his candidacy for a District 14 Assembly seat, but said he will not seek a District 16 Assembly seat after talking with Bateman.

"District 16 is primarily a Republican district and I think it will stay a Republican district," O'Sullivan said.  "We have solid leadership under Bateman.  When I look at the new map all I can ask is why would they sacrifice South Brunswick to a solid Republican district? But that's not my problem, the Democrats are going to have to figure that one out."

Bateman said the new alignment presents an increased challenge in November's election.

"We're going to have to raise more money," he said.  "We're going to have to spend more time outside (Somerset) county, in Mercer, Middlesex and Hunterdon.  It's going to be a more grueling campaign. One of the challenges is going to be coordinating with the officials that represent the towns, to carry a unified message to Trenton."

South Brunswick officials said they were not concerned about the township being adequately represented, even if it were to stay Republican.

"If that becomes a problem I would hope our size has at least some impact," Gambatese said.  "We have over 20,000 registered voters.  I think a Republican senator or assemblyman would have to include South Brunswick in the affairs of this district, otherwise it could cost them.  I would hope the candidates consider that they need South Brunswick votes."

In either case, candidates from both parties face a challenge in establishing a foothold in areas where they don't carry any name recognition.

"Everybody is going to have to work to establish themselves and that's why I think it's going to be a competitive election," Hvozdovic said.  

Both parties will be holding their respective conventions over the next two days across the state, which should clear up the landscape somewhat as candidates for the district's Assembly and Senate seats step forward.

"We don't know what the playing field looks like right now, but over the next couple of days that should clear up," Hvozdovic said.  "I suspect by the weekend we'll have a better sense of who wants to be where as the various conventions are held in the four counties."