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History Favors Obama in New Jersey

State has given its electoral votes to a Democrat in the last five elections.

If history is any indication, Barack Obama should have no problem winning New Jersey's 14 electoral votes in his quest for re-election on Tuesday. 

In the past four presidential elections, the Republican candidate has never been within 240,000 votes, and only once did a candidate get within 500,000 of his Democratic opponent.

A look at statistics kept by the state shows that in the last four elections, incumbent president George W. Bush was the closest at picking up the NJ's nod, still losing to John Kerry by more than 240,000 votes.

The biggest winner among the Democratic candidates in that span was incumbent Barack Obama, who won the state by more than 600,000 votes in 2008.

The closest vote in 20 years came in 1992, when Bill Clinton won his first of two terms as president, defeating George H. Bush by only 79,341 votes.

The numbers show one of the reasons why the national media hasn't used the term "swing state" to describe the race in the Garden State for quite some time. It also shows that the winner hasn't so much coincided with the national victor, so much as who was on the Democratic ticket in the past 20 years.

The last time a Republican won the state was in 1988, when the elder Bush defeated Michael Dukakis by more than 400,000 votes in one of the more lopsided national races in history. Bush won 426 electoral votes to Dukakis' 111.

That was the last of a long line of Republican wins in New Jersey. Before 1992, the last time a Democrat won the state's electoral votes was 1964 when it went for Lyndon B. Johnson.

Once that string of six straight elections was broken, though, the state hasn't voted for a Republican since. The following breakdown of the past 20 years of New Jersey presidential voting gives a look at how residents have cast their ballots.

NJ Presidential Voting History

Year Democratic Votes Republican Votes Difference NJ Winner Same as National Winner? 2008 2,215,422 1,613,207 602,215 Yes 2004 1,911,430 1,670,003 241,427 No 2000 1,788,850 1,284,173 504,677 No 1996 1,652,329 1,103,078 549,251 Yes 1992 1,436,206 1,356,865 79,341 Yes

When it comes to the statistics on voter turnout in New Jersey, one might expect the number 70 to come up on Tuesday. 

In the past two elections, 73 percent of the state's registered voters cast ballots. In 2000, the first election listed on the state's website with such numbers, 69 percent of registered voters came out to make their voices heard. 

If you're looking for the county that may turn out the greatest percentage of its registered voters, Hunterdon and Somerset County are the favorites. Hunterdon had the greatest percentage in 2008 and tied with Somerset in 2004. Somerset held the title alone in 2000. 

When it comes to a low turnout, Hudson County has recently come in with the smallest numbers. The county's percentage of turnout was the least in 2008 and 2004. In 2000, it was Essex County who came in with a state-low 61 percent of its registered voters.

Here is a look at the last three elections when it comes to voter turnout. 

Presidential Voter Turnout

Year Total Registered Voters Total Ballots Cast Percent Cast County With Greatest Percentage County With Least Percentage 2008 5,378,792 3,910,220 73 Hunterdon (81) Hudson (61) 2004 5,009,140 3,638,153 73 Hunterdon, Somerset (82) Hudson (63) 2000 4,699,026 3,219,650 69 Somerset (81) Essex (61)

Tuesday will write a new chapter in Garden State election history. Will recent history repeat itself? New Jersey voters will decide in a matter of hours.

DXJ November 06, 2012 at 02:26 AM
Great! Now all you Dems out there stay home and stay warm. No need to vote now. :)
Rogie November 06, 2012 at 03:42 AM
Obama's administration fell short of some of its goals--primarily due to inherited problems and GOP intransigence but also due to his own mistakes. He also achieved for more--domestically and in foreign policy-- than his opponents will ever acknowledge. But all you need to know about Romney is: 1. that after his comments attacking 47%of Americans as irresponsible, he began claiming he cared about 100% of the public. If you believe the latter is his true belief and how he'd govern, then you're either naive or willfully ignorant. 2. Desperation led him to intentionally mislead Ohioans about Jeep jobs--fear-mongering to such a degree that Chrysler officials had to set the record straight. Romney has lied throughout the campaign--from his much debunked "apology tour" claims to his dishonest claims about welfare reform and Medicare savings and now the pants-on-fire Jeep distortion, Machivellian Mitt has shown he won't let facts get in the way of his pursuit of the presidency. Lies are a key component of his campaign strategy. Rewarding Romney for dishonesty and dismissing nearly half the populace would be deplorable and a disaster for this country--unless you're a multi-millionaire.
Anonymous November 06, 2012 at 04:38 AM
This is all you need to know before you go to vote tomorrow - People Died and Obama, with CBS's Help, LIED - http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Journalism/2012/11/05/Proof-Obama-Refused-to-Call-Benghazi-Terror-CBS-Covered-Up Wonder what the polls would look like today if CBS/60 Minutes had told the whole story months ago, instead of releasing the key section of the interview with zero fanfare and just hours before people started voting in person, and weeks after millions have already voted. Once again, the MSM puts their thumb on the scale and sticks their finger in the eye of the American public.
Em November 06, 2012 at 04:46 AM
Vote for the love of country. Let's start doing something about our 16 trillion debt. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gsa4uLmTw0M&sns=em
Karma Police November 06, 2012 at 05:43 AM
Amen!
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Rogie November 06, 2012 at 12:34 PM
And don't forget that Romney indicated he was against a debt reduction plan that raised $1 in new taxes for every $10 in budget cuts. Of course that was severely conservative Romney, pandering for Tea party votes in the primary. Perhaps he was just lying or that opinion was etch-a-sketched away when he morphed into moderate Mitt. Maybe he should have two lines on each ballot-Severely Conservative Romney and Moderate Mitt. Either way you'd be voting for a disingenuous elitist who will say and do anything to win.
LVMom November 06, 2012 at 12:54 PM
Just remember WE are the 47% according to Romney. Or can your kids "borrow" $300,000 for college from you? Remember Romney's plan takes 8 years but he says Obama should have fixed it in 4. Then we get to human rights. Rights we have sent our young men and women to die for, rights Romney wants to take away. That is like saying all those who have dies for freedom of beliefs died for nothing because we care more for money then we do human rights. At the end of the day, it's about who we are as a people not how much we have.
P_R_PC November 06, 2012 at 01:06 PM
Haimoff on the ballot for Millburn Township Council. DO NOT...I REPEAT....DO NOT VOTE FOR HER!!! Write in anyone else...I chose Dan Baer. Write in Mickey Mouse, Superman or McCheese...anything is better. Be smart MIllburn/Short Hills - if you think they won't select her mayor again you might be surprised. This town is backassward.
Sir November 06, 2012 at 01:14 PM
If you recall, your President said he could fix it in four years or he should not be re elected. He is a downright liar and a divider.
Pete Mock November 06, 2012 at 01:15 PM
Sorry Anonymous, we the people, the mainstream world and the mainstream media, have moved on. The only people still talking about it are Rush, Drudge and the far right. We've heard the facts, seen the timeline, and we've moved on. The people need jobs, but the GOP cries "Benghazi". The wealthy are not paying their fair share, but the GOP chants "Benghazi, Benghazi, Benghazi!". People are struggling, having a tough time making ends meet, but the GOP says that's not important, "our mission is to obstruct, obstruct, obstruct, and stop the president from completing his agenda for the country at all costs, so.... Benghazi, Benghazi, Benghazi!"
ray November 06, 2012 at 02:44 PM
Pete - you and the mainstream probably have moved on since the major networks are not even covering it (Benghazi Gate). That being said we do need more jobs, lower unemployment rate, less people on food stamps, less government and a government that can pass a budget. In addition to reducing our deficit.
J.D. Luke November 06, 2012 at 07:55 PM
It always makes perfect sense to me to reject someone out of hand, proclaim them as dishonest, and then state that they are being divisive. Nope, there's nothing disconnected in that line of reasoning.
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